The government has increased its forecast petroleum revenue for 2026 to around $1.5 billion, citing higher-than-expected crude oil prices in the international market.
The revised estimate, which comes amid a persistent increase in global oil prices mostly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, represents a significant increase from the nearly $1 billion forecast included in the 2026 Budget.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson revealed the updated forecast, suggesting that Ghana will profit from increased export revenue as an oil-producing nation.
“We estimated approximately 1 billion United States dollars from the oil revenue this year going to the heritage stabilisation and annual budget funding amount,” he said.
“But that has been revised since and we expect that instead of a billion, we’ll be expecting about one and a half billion, for example.”
The Finance Minister states that the modification represents the difference between the current market pricing and the oil price assumption used to prepare the budget.
“We had earlier on the programme, the budget of 2026, assumed that the oil price would be about $70. Today it’s in excess of $90 and so there is obviously an increase,” Dr. Forson explained.
The Minister pointed out that although many economies are struggling due to rising crude prices, Ghana, as a crude oil exporter, is also gaining from stronger foreign exchange inflows.
“Since we are also an exporter of oil, the country also benefits from the high price as well,” he stated.
Dr. Forson added that because Ghana’s budget predictions were predicated on a far lower oil price benchmark, the country’s budgetary outlook would be largely secured even if global oil prices dropped after Middle East tensions were resolved.
“The good news is that because we had already programmed $70 or $74, a peace agreement that brings it back to $74 is to our advantage because we never anticipated that we’re going to go to $90 or $100 in any way,” he stated.
The government’s Mid-Year Budget Review, which is set for July, is anticipated to include the updated petroleum income estimate.
Source: newsthemegh.com