Less than two months remain before the December 2024 elections, and according to a last field survey conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is trailing National Democratic Congress (NDC) leader John Dramani Mahama by a significant margin.
With 51.1% of registered votes, Mahama leads, while Bawumia is behind with 37.3%. Other candidates receive 1.3% of the vote, while independents Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako receive 4.1% and 6.2% of the vote, respectively.
Mahama continues to lead Bawumia with 49.3% in the unweighted likely voters’ model, while Bawumia only has 35.9%.
The NPP faces a serious problem with voter indifference because 16% of potential voters are NPP supporters, compared to 3% of NDC supporters.
Floating voters, as well as those failing to reveal their affiliations, make up 38% and 39%, respectively, of those who indicate they will not vote.
Mahama has an 18-point advantage over Bawumia among voters who declined to reveal political affiliations, and a 31-point lead over Bawumia among floating voters (54% to 23%). His lead over Bawumia among first-time voters has grown as well, from a tie in July 2024 to a 46% to 38% edge.
The decline in Muslim voters’ support, a crucial constituency for Bawumia’s campaign, is a worrying trend, with their support declining by almost 4% between July and October 2024.
The survey reveals changes in the attitudes of those who voted for President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020. Seventy percent of these voters still support Bawumia, while 19% have moved to support Mahama and five percent have each moved to Kyeremanten and Bediako.
Significantly, 20% and 37% of NPP 2020 voters in Central and Greater Accra, respectively, now support Mahama.
Mahama leads in twelve regions on a regional level, and since July, he has included the Bono region in his column. He is the leader in the following areas: Savannah, Bono, Bono East, Savannah, Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Oti, and Volta. In the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East areas, Bawumia still holds sway.
Bawumia’s hegemony is being undermined in the Eastern and Ashanti regions by the rise of Kyeremanten and Bediako. The NPP seeks 85% of the vote in the Ashanti area, where Bawumia leads with 66%, Mahama with 22%, Bediako with 7%, and Kyeremanten with 4%.
Bawumia is trailing his party’s candidates in 79 constituencies, indicating the impact of Kyeremanten and Bediako on the prospects of the ruling party. Mahama is exceeding his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies polled.
Voters are mostly motivated by concerns about the jobs, education, and economy. The economy comes in first on the list, as stated by 70% of respondents, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%).
Voter decisions are also influenced by the state of the economy, party performance, candidate credibility, and party manifestos.
On manifesto favorability, the NDC leads the NPP by a margin of 14 points, with the NPP’s manifesto having a net favorability rating of +6 points.
Sixty-two percent of voters think Ghana is going in the wrong way, indicating a general lack of satisfaction with the country’s orientation.
The majority of NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and other party supporters (76%), share this opinion. On the other hand, 64% of NPP supporters think that things are going well in the nation.
36% of respondents approve of President Nana Akufo-Addo’s work performance, while 59% disapprove. Voters give the government’s overall performance a negative rating of 49% and a good rating of 30%.
Mahama is the clear front-runner as the December elections draw closer thanks to his advantages in important demographics and regions, while Bawumia and the NPP are facing growing opposition from independent candidates and voter indifference.
Source: newsthemegh.com