The National Democratic Congress (NDC) is projected to secure 154 parliamentary seats in Ghana’s 2028 general elections, while the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) is expected to win 100 seats, according to a new electoral forecast released by Global InfoAnalytics.
The latest projection suggests that the NDC could maintain its parliamentary majority in the next general elections, although its representation may decline compared with its current strength in Parliament.
According to the forecast, 20 constituencies have been classified as undisclosed, while two parliamentary seats remain too close to call, bringing the total number of constituencies covered by the model to 276.
The NDC’s projected 154 seats represent 55.8 per cent of the total parliamentary seats, compared with 100 seats, or 36.2 per cent, for the NPP. The remaining seats fall within the undisclosed and toss-up categories.
Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwa, announced the projections in a social media post on Tuesday, November 3, describing the findings as the organisation’s first Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model analysis of the 2028 parliamentary elections.
In his announcement, Dankwa stated that the NDC was projected to win 154 seats, the NPP 100 seats, with two constituencies classified as toss-ups and 20 seats remaining undisclosed.
Global InfoAnalytics Uses MRP Model to Forecast 2028 Parliamentary Elections
The latest parliamentary seat projection is based on a statistical forecasting technique known as Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP).
The model combines opinion poll data with demographic and population information to estimate voting preferences across different geographical areas and constituencies.
MRP modelling is increasingly used in electoral research to assess voting patterns and forecast potential election outcomes, particularly where reliable constituency-level polling data may be limited.
However, the projections represent estimates rather than guaranteed election results, as voter preferences, political developments, campaign strategies and other electoral factors could change before the December 2028 polls.
NDC and NPP Parliamentary Strength After 2024 Elections
The latest forecast comes against the background of a significant political shift following Ghana’s 2024 general elections, which handed the NDC a commanding majority in Parliament.
The NDC secured 185 parliamentary seats in the 276-member House, while the NPP obtained 87 seats. Four additional seats went to independent candidates.
Comparing the current parliamentary composition with the new Global InfoAnalytics forecast suggests that the NDC could lose 31 seats in the 2028 elections if the projections materialise.
Conversely, the NPP could increase its parliamentary representation by 13 seats, rising from its current 87 seats to a projected 100.
What the 2028 Parliamentary Forecast Means for NDC and NPP
The latest projections provide an early indication of Ghana’s evolving political landscape ahead of the 2028 general elections.
Although the NDC remains ahead in the forecast, the projected reduction in its parliamentary seats could signal a more competitive contest between the governing party and the NPP.
For the opposition NPP, the projected increase in parliamentary representation offers a potential indication of electoral recovery following its defeat in the 2024 elections.
Nevertheless, with 22 constituencies still classified as undisclosed or toss-ups, the final parliamentary balance could change as the election approaches.
The projections are expected to generate further political debate about the electoral fortunes of the NDC and NPP, as both parties prepare for another crucial contest for parliamentary and presidential power in Ghana.
Source: newsthemegh.com